The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
Provider : The Conference Board
Description: Comprising 10 separate economic indicators, the LEI composite is intended to be an advance signal of peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The Conference Board also publishes two sister indicators, the Coincident Economic Index and the Lagging Economic Index, that can be used to confirm and cross check signals provided by the LEI.
Links: https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
Provider : Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis – FRED
Description: This indicator (10-minus-2) acts as a proxy for, and is a segment of the U.S. Treasury Yield Curve. The full Treasury Yield Curve is a plot of the yield of the different maturities of the U.S. Treasuries and is usually upward sloping. The 10-minus-2 indicator simply plots the difference in the yields of the 10 year U.S. Treasury Bond and the 2 Year U.S. Treasury Note, which is expected to be positive in normal conditions. Historically The Yield Curve and the 10-minus-2 have foretasted recessions in the United States when they have “inverted”. This occurs when the longer maturity Treasuries yield less than the shorter maturity Treasuries. i.e. the 10-minus-2 goes below 0%.
Links: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=lFt2
FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median
Provider : U.S. Federal Open Market Committee
Description: Provides the median forecast value of the Federal Funds Rates as seen by the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC meets approximately 8 times per year and sets the Federal Funds Rate. The Federal Funds rate is the rate the member banks can lender to each other at, which affects other short to intermediate term interest rates in the United States. This is the main mechanism that the FOMC uses to guide the economy and achieve its mandate of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.
Links: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nLKb
Consumer Price Index
Provider : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Description: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a widely followed measure of inflation in the U.S. as experienced by end users of products. It is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas. Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available.
Links: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=lIhl
Producer Price Index
Provider : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Description: The Producer Price Index (PPI) assesses the inflation experienced by U.S. goods producers. The program measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. The prices included in the PPI are from the first commercial transaction for many products and some services.
Links: https://www.bls.gov/ppi/, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=o2VB
Civilian Unemployment Rate
Provider : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Description: The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Labor force data are restricted to people 16 years of age and older, who currently reside in 1 of the 50 states or the District of Columbia, who do not reside in institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces.
Links: https://www.bls.gov/ces/, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=lFU9
Real Gross Domestic Product
Provider : U.S. Bureau Economic Analysis
Description: A comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. GDP is the value of the goods and services produced in the United States. The growth rate of GDP is the most popular indicator of the nation's overall economic health.
Links: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=mwGm
Corporate Profits
Provider : U.S. Bureau Economic Analysis
Description: This metric is a measure of the net income of corporations before deducting income taxes that is consistent with the value of goods and services measured in GDP. Corporate profits tend to fall and/or become negative prior to economic recessions.
Links: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nTdQ
Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product
Provider : U.S. Office of Management and Budget
Description: Provides the ratio of the total debt of the U.S. to the Gross Domestic Product of the U.S. Total public debt includes all debt held by the public in addition to intergovernmental debt, which includes items such as Social Security. While the overall nominal level of debt is frequently cited, the ratio of debt to GDP is a more useful metric when assessing the level of debt.
Links: https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product
Provider : U.S. Office of Management and Budget
Description: Provides the ratio of the surplus/deficit of the U.S. to the Gross Domestic Product of the U.S. The federal surplus/deficit is the amount of receipts (taxes) minus the amount of expenditures the U.S. government incurs in a year. The surplus/deficit gets added/subtracted from the total debt. While the overall nominal level of surplus/deficit is frequently cited, the ratio of surplus/deficit to GDP puts the current level in context.
Links: https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=lFvJ